Muigwithania 2.0

“Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity”.

Martin Luther King, Jr. (January 15, 1929 – April 4, 1968)

Failed state Index

The index’s ranks are based on twelve indicators of state vulnerability – four social, two economic and six political.The indicators are not designed to forecast when states may experience violence or collapse. Instead, they are meant to measure a state’s vulnerability to collapse or conflict.

Prime Minister Raila Odinga

Social Indicators

1. Demographic pressures: including the pressures deriving from high population density relative to food supply and other life-sustaining resources. The pressure from a population’s settlement patterns and physical settings, including border disputes, ownership or occupancy of land, access to transportation outlets, control of religious or historical sites, and proximity to environmental hazards.

2. Massive movement of refugees and internally displaced peoples: forced uprooting of large communities as a result of random or targeted violence and/or repression, causing food shortages, disease, lack of clean water, land competition, and turmoil that can spiral into larger humanitarian and security problems, both within and between countries.

3. Legacy of vengeance-seeking group grievance: based on recent or past injustices, which could date back centuries. Including atrocities committed with impunity against communal groups and/or specific groups singled out by state authorities, or by dominant groups, for persecution or repression. Institutionalized political exclusion. Public scapegoating of groups believed to have acquired wealth, status or power as evidenced in the emergence of “hate” radio, pamphleteering and stereotypical or nationalistic political rhetoric.

4. Chronic and sustained human flight: both the “brain drain” of professionals, intellectuals and political dissidents and voluntary emigration of “the middle class.” Growth of exile/expat communities are also used as part of this indicator.

Economic Indicators

5. Uneven economic development along group lines: determined by group-based inequality, or perceived inequality, in education, jobs, and economic status. Also measured by group-based poverty levels, infant mortality rates, education levels.

6. Sharp and/or severe economic decline: measured by a progressive economic decline of the society as a whole (using: per capita income, GNP, debt, child mortality rates, poverty levels, business failures.) A sudden drop in commodity prices, trade revenue, foreign investment or debt payments. Collapse or devaluation of the national currency and a growth of hidden economies, including the drug trade, smuggling, and capital flight. Failure of the state to pay salaries of government employees and armed forces or to meet other financial obligations to its citizens, such as pension payments.

Political Indicators

7. Criminalization and/or delegitimisation of the state: endemic corruption or profiteering by ruling elites and resistance to transparency, accountability and political representation. Includes any widespread loss of popular confidence in state institutions and processes.

8. Progressive deterioration of public services: a disappearance of basic state functions that serve the people, including failure to protect citizens from terrorism and violence and to provide essential services, such as health, education, sanitation, public transportation. Also using the state apparatus for agencies that serve the ruling elites, such as the security forces, presidential staff, central bank, diplomatic service, customs and collection agencies.

9. Widespread violation of human rights: an emergence of authoritarian, dictatorial or military rule in which constitutional and democratic institutions and processes are suspended or manipulated. Outbreaks of politically inspired (as opposed to criminal) violence against innocent civilians. A rising number of political prisoners or dissidents who are denied due process consistent with international norms and practices. Any widespread abuse of legal, political and social rights, including those of individuals, groups or cultural institutions (e.g., harassment of the press, politicization of the judiciary, internal use of military for political ends, public repression of political opponents, religious or cultural persecution.)

10. Security apparatus as ‘state within a state’: an emergence of elite or praetorian guards that operate with impunity. Emergence of state-sponsored or state-supported private militias that terrorize political opponents, suspected “enemies,” or civilians seen to be sympathetic to the opposition. An “army within an army” that serves the interests of the dominant military or political clique. Emergence of rival militias, guerilla forces or private armies in an armed struggle or protracted violent campaigns against state security forces.

11. Rise of factionalised elites: a fragmentation of ruling elites and state institutions along group lines. Any use of nationalistic political rhetoric by ruling elites, often in terms of communal irredentism or of communal solidarity (e.g., “ethnic cleansing” or “defending the faith.”)

12. Intervention of other states or external factors: military or Para-military engagement in the internal affairs of the state at risk by outside armies, states, identity groups or entities that affect the internal balance of power or resolution of the conflict. Intervention by donors, especially if there is a tendency towards over-dependence on foreign aid or peacekeeping missions.

Kenya: guilty on all  twelve counts

With each passing day, william ruto is becoming more and more belligerent. He is slowly coming out of the closet to air his frustrations with the orange democratic movement, the coalition, the treasury and anything else he can lay his hands on. He is the new kid on the block with the bravado to challenge the system he is serving as a cabinet minister. He no longer thinks collective responsibility among cabinet ministers is a good idea. If he is not blasting connivers and schemers against him within his party, he is training his guns on the treasury that doesn’t think his agriculture ministry deserves more money than the military department. All of a sudden, ruto has become a champion of the poor, the oppressed and the jobless youth. He has found new inspiration in the fight against poverty and inequality; unlike his two superiors who have found comfort in their new relationship. Ruto has a special loathing for the waki report which has driven him to the edge. For this reason, his realization that his boss raila odinga had supported the full implementation of the report amounted to a betrayal of the highest order and a stab on the back by a comrade in arms.

According to him, the mayhem, murder, rape and displacement of thousands of non- kalenjins in the rift valley was done in the name of raila. Therefore, for better or for worse, raila should be the last person to want to punish the community that stood by him and fought his war. It is true the war cry at the time, at the height of the violent protest all over the country was “no raila! no peace!” back then, most of kenya except central,North Eastern,chunks of Nairobi and eastern provinces believed that raila had won the elections. However, despite this anger with the government machinery for robbing raila of victory, the man never told anybody to kill, maim, rape and rob in his name. He never ordered non- kalenjins to be removed from rift valley or any part of the country. That kind of order would have impacted negatively on the person who wanted to be the president of kenya. Ruto is not alone in being upset with raila. Most mps from rift valley and western province seem to have an axe to grind with their prime minister. The rift valley mps have used every opportunity to vilify and discredit him right from the day the coalition government formed its first cabinet. A number of them who thought they deserved to be in that cabinet but missed have never forgiven raila. Initially they used three bi-elections in kipsigis part of rift valley to punish raila’s odm.

They failed three times. Then they lurched onto the mau forest that raila had promised to clear of settlers and restore the water catchment area. As they struggled with the mau forest saga, waki presented them with a convenient diversion. Now the song in rift valley is that raila has used them to get his premiership and is about to dump them and watch as some of their leaders are rounded up for the hague trials. The question is; can ruto and his kinsmen afford to decamp from odm now if matters got worse? can raila let the kalenjin mps go away should they continue to nag him for all manner of reasons? do they have enough disrespect for him to continue distracting him with their parochial issues? how many of these mps would have been elected on a kanu ticket had they not joined odm? between these noisy mps and raila; who used who to get elected? how many of these characters are electable on their own? if the original narc had held together in 2003 and chose to pursue these characters for their past misdeeds when they were in power for 24 years under daniel arap moi, where would some of them be today? most of these questions can only be answered appropriately by the very mps from rift valley because they know better their recent history. As for ruto; if he is a true leader of his people; if he truly thinks he can no longer serve in a cabinet of incompetent, visionless and self seeking leaders like president mwai kibaki and raila, then the best laudable option is to resign at least from the cabinet.

There are precedents to emulate. Raila’s father jaramogi oginga odinga did just that in 1966. The late joseph murumbi followed him a few months later. Kenneth matiba and kibaki followed the same path two decades later. It is the honorable thing to do when you no longer believe in collective responsibility.

Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta insists that the Waki report should be fully implemented but reconciliation must be achieved in the long run.Uhuru said truth and justice should address historical election-related violence once and for all. Addressing a funds drive meeting in aid of Christ the King Catholic Church in Juja constituency, Thika District, at the weekend, Uhuru said displacement of people,destruction of property and inhuman killings will not end unless justice is sought on the poll violence. Uhuru said he had contributed money during the violence to support victims of clashes and not to fund retaliatory attacks.He said he is willing to face a tribunal to investigate top leaders implicated in the Waki report, and whose names are in a secret envelope handed over to former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, to exonerate himself.The Gatundu South MP said inter-ethnic fights should be brought to an end and cited recent killings in Mandera District that prompted the Government to launch an Army operation in the area.Brothers in Mandera are killing one another as they celebrate Obama’s victory. Problems belong to everyone and we should come together as a unit to achieve the objectives,” he said.Uhuru was accompanied by Ndaragwa MP Jeremiah Kioni and area MP George Thuo. The leaders said truth behind the violence must be established to allow the country to heal

By G. Pascal Zachary

On November 4 in Kenya, one might mistakenly conclude that Obama was running for president here and not in the United States. The city of Kisumu, home to Obama’s ancestors in western Kenya, held mock voting from 8 a.m. in the morning. In Nairobi, at Kenyatta International Conference Centre, big-screen TVs showed reports on the American vote. And at the fashionable Nakamutt grocery store in downtown Nairobi, store clerks greeted their customers with a simple question: Did you vote for Obama?

Yet there is undeniably an over-the-top quality about Kenya’s embrace of Obama. The government declared a national holiday to celebrate the Illinois senator’s victory over John McCain. The National Theater is staging “Obama: The Musical,” which explores the next president’s life through song. There are appeals for Kenya to officially petition the United States to become the 51st state. And the country is already making plans to host a visit from the president-elect, even though Obama hasn’t indicated when, if ever, he will come.

Obamania in Kenya has gone on for years now, but the hype isn’t just about the president-elect’s roots. Rather, Kenya’s Obama fixation seems to represent a kind of escapist fantasy for an African country beset by political dysfunctionality. Still raw with the memory of the electoral violence that left hundreds dead last spring, Kenya is thirsty for exactly the sort of change Obama represents. Indeed, the Illinois senator seems to possess everything that Kenya’s political leaders lack: youthfulness, a conciliatory image, and the hope of transcending narrow ethnic identities in favor of a common national interest.

To grasp why the Obama fascination in Kenya came to be, return to January of this year, when the country suffered through the worst post-election violence in its 45-year history. A political bargain ended the crisis but failed to address the enmity between rival factions and ethnic groups here. Current Prime Minister Raila Odinga garnered much of his support from the Luo ethnic group, which remains deeply suspicious of the country’s dominant Kikuyu, led by President Mwai Kibaki. And the skepticism runs both ways.

In a country where most political elites are over 60 but half the population is under 20 years old, Obama’s youth and his message of unity has a strong appeal. As one writer to the East African newspaper observed Monday, the ‘old boys’ of Kenyan politics should be swept aside, replaced by a new generation. “Younger Kenyans,” wrote B. Amaya of Nairobi, “should emulate Obama in order to change the tribal nature of our politics.”

The senator’s presidential victory offers an obvious lesson about diversity: The United States has done the unthinkable in electing a non-white president. Could Kenyans learn to embrace their own ethnic differences? Odinga has indicated that Obama’s victory means such reconciliation is possible. “If Obama can win, and get endorsements from the whites,” he said shortly before the election, “then why should an all-black country like Kenya have its citizens fighting each other?”

But even if Obama is a model to emulate, could his presidency really change the political reality in Kenya?After all, the country’s political strife dates back far longer than this year’s flawed elections. Governance and advantage often fall along ethnic lines, depending on who is in charge. Official corruption remains high even by African standards, even under the current power-sharing compromise. Kibaki and Odinga are past masters at the game of ethnic patronage, exhibiting little stomach for the kind of transformational change espoused by Obama. Both men publicly deplore ethnic violence, yet neither seems eager to examine how to reconcile the ethnic clusters that jockey for position in a society deeply divided between haves and have-nots. Both stand accused, for instance, of opposing efforts to identify and prosecute organizers of ethnic violence, and the independent commission that made this recommendation last week is now in limbo.

The incoming Obama administration could push for more from Kenya’s leaders—and there is a strong case for doing so. Kenya is home to the largest U.S. embassy in Africa and borders tumultuous Somalia, a known staging ground for terrorist activity. Islamic terrorist networks are also believed to operate in Kenya, making internal security issues of strategic interest to the United States. Yet many in Kenya and the international community insist that only a thorough internal reckoning can guarantee that the country won’t fall prey to similar ethnic violence in months to come.

Obama’s victory is undoubtedly a huge boost to a battered nation’s pride and an example of what the country’s “sons” might achieve outside Kenya’s tense political landscape. But instead of merely celebrating Obama’s success, Kenya would do well to follow the advice he offered during his trip to the country in 2006, and envision their own country the way they wish it to be seen from afar.“I can say that from the perspective of the U.S., they look at Kenya and all they see is Kenya,” Obama told the Nairobi-based Nation Media Group at the time. “They don’t pay attention to Luo and Kamba and Kikuyu and Maasai and so on. If people start taking a global perspective, they will begin to realize that Kenya can’t afford to be divided like this.”

Then, maybe Kenya’s Obama dreams will come true.